Just Transition Planning Toolbox

All around the world, major changes are underway – or coming – in crucial sectors of our society: how we produce and consume energy, goods, and even food; how we move around; how we manage water and waste; how we manage and protect our natural resources and landscapes; and how we produce the goods and services that our economies depend on. Change is being driven by the need to tackle climate change, and to address the many other environmental and social externalities of our current production and consumption practices, but also by the adoption of new technologies, changing markets, or changing consumer preferences.

Major socioeconomic changes, whether at a local or national scale, are likely to be disruptive. A greener economy and more sustainable production processes will produce net benefits for society, but the process of transition may create new costs or risks for some people. There could be localized job losses and negative impacts on local economic activity, for instance, even if the transition results in higher net employment or net economic activity overall.

If not carefully managed, those disruptions could have real human impacts, particularly among people and communities whose livelihoods are affected, or who were already vulnerable to begin with. That, in turn, will also create local resistance to the transitions.

The concept of just transitions encourages planners and other stakeholders to:

• Actively promote socially inclusive processes when planning and implementing a transition (sometimes referred to as ensuring “procedural justice”).
• Mitigate the costs or other negative impacts of the transition where they fall unfairly on certain groups or result in hardship, and design the new economy so that its benefits are distributed widely across society (ensuring “distributional justice”).
• Look for opportunities to use the transition to also reform existing social or economic structures that currently create injustices and/or vulnerabilities (promoting “restorative justice”). Well-designed transitions may be used to bring about many positive changes for communities and regions.

Many social, economic and environmental issues need to be considered and addressed as part of managing the change process. These include impacts on workers who are affected by the phasing down of certain industries, as well as other economic or social impacts that could affect local communities, small businesses, and local governments. In some sectors, a major related concern is how to deal with the environmental legacies of today’s economy – such as degraded forests, contaminated lands, or mining voids.

The planning process also needs to explicitly recognize how intersecting forms of discrimination and marginalization – on the basis of gender, race or ethnicity, age, and other factors – may affect the distribution of costs and benefits. It must devise strategies to ensure that inequality is reduced, not increased, by the transition to new practices and industries.

Just transition planning can be a bridge between climate action and the promotion of other sustainable development goals, because it will touch upon many different aspects of social, economic, and environmental policy. To achieve this, strategies designed to promote just transition should be aligned with other policies and plans that have the same goals. At the same time, some policies, plans, and fiscal settings may need to be adjusted – or even significantly reformed – to align with the vision of a just transition.

Finding stakeholder agreement on how to define the goals of a just transition in any specific context, and the principles that should guide planning, is an important early activity in planning (see Module 2.3).

It provides a practical guide to planning climate and/or sustainability transitions that are equitable and inclusive. The Toolbox explains key concepts and lays out the different elements needed to achieve a just transition: from the initial dialogues and analysis, to the preparation of a holistic transition plan.

The materials are designed to be useful in a wide range of contexts, and include real-world examples and links to external “how to” resources.

It can be used by many different kinds of stakeholders involved in planning, funding, and/or supporting a transition, including:

• Government agencies at the national or subnational level – particularly those tasked with initiating or coordinating the transition;
• Development finance institutions, bilateral development partners, international agencies, and others providing finance and technical assistance;
• Civil society organizations, labor unions, and other stakeholders seeking to ensure a just transition.

It includes five interconnected modules:

1. Mobilizing stakeholders;
2. Developing vision and objectives;
3. Analyzing impacts and opportunities;
4. Devising strategies;
5. Resources and partnerships.

Each module includes an overview of key activities and relevant tools and methodologies, followed by a series of real-world examples and links to resources.

The Toolbox describes many, diverse activities that go into preparing for, and implementing, a transition. It can be difficult to know where to begin such a complex planning process. And there may be daunting challenges: for instance, a political economy that resists change or does not actively engage in dialogue about transition planning, data gaps that constrain analysis or decision making, financial limitations, or coordination challenges between actors or different types of expertise.

So how do we proceed in these circumstances? Which actions might be most important in the near term?

To help to position yourself and to understand what the immediate needs are in your context, a set of orientation questions might be helpful as a starting point. Working through these is one way of sketching out what is happening or has been done in the context where you are working.

A lot of knowledge and data, of different kinds, will ideally be drawn upon for transition planning. However, in any real-world context there may be significant data gaps that undermine our ability to inform decisions. Data may be missing altogether, not publicly accessible, not available at the right scale (e.g. national or local), or may not be disaggregated in ways that help to properly assess inequality and distributional impacts (for example, by gender).

Some activities can proceed even without extensive data. For example, early dialogue with stakeholders can already begin to develop a picture of many of the general risks, opportunities and strategies.

Filling data gaps will also become an important activity, and different actors might contribute to this – different government departments, research and education organizations, civil society organizations, and industry. Improving statistics on key issues, for instance relating to the labour market, may require coordination across several entities, data collection systems, and scales (local, provincial, national and even international) – so establishing connections and exploring options together is likely to be a productive first step.

Even where there may be some data, it can still be challenging to ensure it is accurate and unbiased. Using multiple analytical methods or data sources together can be a helpful way of enhancing the coverage and/or reliability of analysis.

The toolbox builds on the knowledge and experience developed by CIF and its partners over the past several years, supplemented by in-depth research to identify the approaches and tools being used in just transition planning around the world.

Ideas and examples were also gathered from interviews with representatives from governments, development finance institutions, the International Labour Organization (ILO) and other international organizations, civil society or grassroots organizations, and different industry sectors.

The examples in the modules do not necessarily represent “best practices.” They have not been screened for impact, and most may be flawed in some way when measured against the goal of a “perfect” just transition. They are included to illustrate different models or approaches, that have been tried, and to offer inspiration when thinking about how to undertake activities in other contexts.

We always welcome your feedback on the Just Transition Planning Toolbox. If there are other resources or examples that you feel could be included in any of the modules, please let us know. If you feel a particular example or resource is not accurately represented in the toolbox, or is problematic from the perspective of promoting a just transition, please let us know. 

Contact us by email at:

Aaron Atteridge: aatteridge@worldbank.org 

This toolbox draws directly upon insights from very many experts and publications. Individual citations are not included throughout to avoid cluttering the content of the online platform for users. However, we are indebted to the accumulated knowledge and expertise from a wide range of literature and experts working in this field.

We are grateful to many people for sharing their expertise and time, and providing input, during development of the Just Transition Planning Toolbox. This includes: Kidanua Abera Gizaw (African Development Bank), Mariana Alfonso (Inter-American Development Bank), Laura Becerra (Neyen Consulting), Leonardo Beltran (Advisory Board Member of the CIF Just Transition Initiative), Eva Bernard (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development), Margherita Calderone (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development), Pietro Calice (World Bank), Ezgi Canpolat (World Bank), Andrea Carega (CIF), Sherwin Cotta (United Kingdom Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy), Marion Davis (freelance editor), Mafalda Dutarte (CIF), Kate Hughes (Asian Development Bank), Jairus Josol (Asian Development Bank), Nina Kolybashkina (CIF), Anne Lillis (CIF), Brittney Melloy (CIF), Flavia Milano (Inter-American Development Bank), Nithi Nesadurai (Climate Action Network Southeast Asia), Andrew Norton (CIF), Ines Novais (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development), Sandeep Pai (Centre for Strategic and International Studies), Miguel Rescalvo (Neyen Consulting), Camilla Roman (International Labour Organization), Neha Sharma (CIF), Anna Vasylyeva (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development), and Mike Ward (CIF).

We have also drawn on a wide literature when compiling the toolbox. In addition to the sources referred to in individual examples and resources, this includes:

ADB. n.d. “Social Protection and Labor.” Asian Development Bank. Social Development and Poverty (blog).

Akgüç, Mehtap, Kalina Arabadjieva, and Béla Galgóczi. 2022. “Why the EU’s Patchy ‘Just Transition’ Framework Is Not up to Meeting Its Climate Ambitions.” Policy Brief. European Trade Union Institute (ETUI). 

Anderson, Teresa. 2019. “Principles for a Just Transition in Agriculture.” Action Aid.

Atteridge, Aaron, and Claudia Strambo. 2021. “How Can Socio-Economic Transitions Be Better Managed?” SEI Report. Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI).

Aung, May Thazin, and Claudia Strambo. 2020. “Distributional Impacts of Mining Transitions: Learning from the Past.” SEI Working Paper. Stockholm Environment Institute.

CIF and CSIS. 2020. “Just Transition Concepts and Relevance for Climate Action: A Preliminary Framework.” Just Transition Initiative, Climate Investment Funds.

Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. 2020. “Distributional Analysis.” Guidance Note. Australian Government.

Gendronneau, Cloé, Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, Dilek Yildiz, Emilio Zagheni, Lee Fiorio, Yuan Hsiao, Martin Stepanek, Ingmar Weber, Guy Abel, and Stijn Hoorens. 2019. “Measuring Labour Mobility and Migration Using Big Data.” RAND Europe and Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion, European Commission.

Horton, Mark, and Asmaa El-Ganainy. n.d. “Fiscal Policy: Taking and Giving Away.” International Monetary Fund (IMF). Finance and Development (blog).

Hughes, Kate, and Miguel Rescalvo. 2021. “Just Transition Beyond the Energy Sector.” ADB Brief No. 195. Asian Development Bank.

IDB. 2018. “IDB Group Civil Society Engagement Strategy.” Inter-American Development Bank.

IDB. 2020. “Public Consultations Step-by-Step: +300 Regulatory and Legal Frameworks Applicable in Latin America and the Caribbean.” Inter-American Development Bank.

ILO, dir. 2019. GAIN Webinar 7: Skills for a Greener Future: Taking Stock and Looking Ahead.

ILO. 2022. “Finance for a Just Transition and the Role of Transition Finance.” G20 Sustainable Finance Working Group Input Paper. International Labour Organization.

International Association for Impact Assessment (IAIA). n.d. “Social Impact Assessment.” IAIA Wiki (blog).

IRENA. 2020. “Measuring the Socio-Economics of Transition: Focus on Jobs.” Abu Dhabi: International Renewable Energy Agency.

Joshi-Ghani, Abha, and Deblina Saha. 2018. “Which Sectors Have Attracted Most Private Investments in Infrastructure in 2017?” World Bank blogs. Getting Infrastructure Finance Right (blog). November 2018.

Lahiri-Dutt, Kuntala, Sophie Dowling, Donny Pasaribu, Arnab Roy Chowdhury, Huong Do, and Ruchira Talukdar. 2022. “Just Transition for All: A Feminist Approach for the Coal Sector.” Washington D.C.: World Bank.

Lestari, Tari, and Balgis Inayah. 2023. “Guidelines: Advancing Just Transitions in Indonesia.” Dala Institute and Climate Strategies.

Molina Romo, Oscar. 2022. “The Role of Tripartite Social Dialogue in Facilitating a Just Transition: Experiences from Selected Countries.” ILO Working Paper 76. International Labour Organization.

OECD. 2013. “Innovation-Driven Growth in Regions: The Role of Smart Specialisation.” Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

Pinko, Nicole, and Angela Ortega Pastor. 2022. “What Makes a Transition Plan Credible? Considerations for Financial Institutions.” Climate Policy Initiative.

Queensland Government. 2017. “Economic Impact Assessment Guideline.” Department of State Development.

Scottish Government. 2016. “Computable General Equilibrium Modelling: Introduction.” Factsheet. Chief Economist Directorate.

Scottish Government. 2020. “Just Transitions: A Comparative Perspective.” Energy and Climate Change Directorate.

START. 2021. “Good Practice Examples of Regional and Sub-Regional Strategies in Coal Regions in Transition.” START, European Commission.

Strambo, Claudia, May Thazin Aung, and Aaron Atteridge. 2019. “Navigating Coal Mining Closure and Societal Change: Learning from Past Cases of Mining Decline.” SEI Working Paper. Stockholm Environment Institute.

Taylor, Abigail, and Racquel Ortega-Argiles. 2019. “What Is Smart Specialisation?” University of Birmingham. City REDI Blog (blog). July 2019.

Transport and Infrastructure Council. n.d. “Australian Transport Assessment and Planning (ATAP) Guidelines - Category 4: Tools and Techniques.” Commonwealth of Australia.

UN Women. n.d. “Gender Responsive Budgeting.” UN Women (blog).

World Bank. 2018. “Managing Coal Mine Closure: Achieving a Just Transition for All.” Issues Paper. World Bank.

Zinecker, Anna, Phillip Gass, Ivetta Gerasimchuk, Purva Jain, Tom Moerenhout, Yuliia Oharenko, Anissa Suharsono, and Christopher Beaton. 2018. “Real People, Real Change: Strategies for Just Energy Transitions.” International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), Global Subsidies Initiative.